Back

Ecological Indicators

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 90 days, ranked by how well they match Ecological Indicators's content profile, based on 21 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

1
Maps of historical forests in France and their temporal continuity since the first half of the 19th century

Dupouey, J.-L.; Berges, L.; Leroy, N.; Lafite, R.; Archaux, F.; Auge, V.; Bec, R.; Bellifa, M.; Bourguignon, J.; Buridant, J.; Burlin, B.; Caubet, S.; Chaleat, A.; Chauchard, S.; Cordonnier, T.; Decocq, G.; Delcamp, M.; Fleury, J.; Gaudin, S.; Gervaise, A.; Gautier, G.; Guilloux, J.; Hamel, A.; Heintz, W.; Janssen, P.; Labonne, S.; Lair, P.; Lallemant, T.; Landmann, G.; Larrieu, L.; Martin, H.; Michel, C.; Mollier, S.; Panaïotis, C.; Renaux, B.; Rochel, X.; Salvaudon, A.; Thomas, M.; Touzet, T.; Vallauri, D.

2026-07-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.22.736859 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
9.6%
Show abstract

AbstractIntegrating environmental history is essential for understanding present-day ecosystem dynamics and guiding modern conservation strategies, particularly under the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. This data paper presents the nationwide digitisation and vectorisation of the French General Ordnance survey map (1818-1866), capturing the countrys forest cover at its historical minimum (a pivotal moment known as the "forest transition"). The original manuscript sheets surveyed at a 1:40,000 scale (976 sheets) were scanned, georeferenced and vectorised. They offer higher thematic accuracy than the older Cassini map and are far more feasible for nationwide vectorisation than the highly detailed Napoleonic cadastre. The area-weighted mean survey date is 1843, and the dataset covers 99.6% of modern mainland France. To correct for paper deformation, historical surveying errors and coordinate system transformations, a rigorous workflow was established. This shifted from a global 6-parameter affine transformation (root mean square error of 60 m) to a local elastic transformation based on thousands of control points, for 21% of the territory, which reduced the positioning error to 34 m. We assessed data quality by comparing the General Ordnance Survey maps with the Napoleonic cadastre--the standard reference for 19th-century land-use data--across more than 600 municipalities. The correlation between the two sources regarding forest cover percentages was exceptionally high (r>0.9). Because forests formed large, compact blocks of significant strategic interest to military engineers, they were mapped with high precision. Localised inaccuracies were primarily found in remote areas, most notably in the mountains. The resulting historical vector layer was intersected with contemporary forest data (BD Foret(R) v2, 2005-2019). Historical polygons smaller than 0.5 ha were filtered out to comply with modern FAO forest definitions. This spatial overlay generated a new dataset detailing four distinct land-use trajectories: . ancient forests (44.8% of present day forest): land classified as forest in both the 19th century and the present day (indicating maximum temporal continuity). . recent forests (55.2% of present day forest): land that was non-forested in the 19th century but has since undergone reforestation. . deforested areas (18.9% of 19th-century forest): land recorded as forest in the 19th century but subsequently converted to other land uses. . stable non-forest areas: land that has remained unforested across both periods. Our results suggest that the forest area of mainland France at its historical minimum should be revised upward to 9.9 million ha. A preliminary analysis further indicates that current spatial variation in forest cover is explained more by land-use dynamics occurring since the forest transition than by the initial extent of forest cover. These two open-access national datasets (the 19th-century forest layer and the land-use transition map) open the door to a better understanding of present-day forests : e.g. their biodiversity, soil quality, tree growth and belowground water quality. Furthermore, they provide decision-support tools for conservation planning. Key messageIn this data paper, we provide a map of 19th-century forests in France based on the digitisation of the military topographic map (1818-1866). By overlaying this historical source with the present-day forest map, we built a second map which allows the identification of ancient forests, recent forests, and deforestation. These maps offer avenues for historical ecology and the design of conservation strategies.

2
TRIDENT (Taxonomic Resolution and IDentification using Environmental dNa Traces): An Optimized Algorithm for Vertebrate Taxonomic Assignments in eDNA Metabarcoding, Integrating Molecular, Taxonomic, and Ecological Criteria

Haderle, R.; Jung, G.; Riou, M.; Ung, V.; Jung, J.-L.

2026-07-09 molecular biology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735257 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
8.0%
Show abstract

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has become a powerful approach for large-scale biodiversity assessment, yet taxonomic assignment remains one of its most critical error-prone steps. Current bioinformatic pipelines rely on molecular similarity searches against reference databases, but assignment accuracy is constrained not only by short marker length and database incompleteness, but also by fundamental limitations, including recent species radiations, incomplete lineage sorting, introgression, NUMTs, and the imperfect correspondence between genetic variation and species boundaries. Here, we present TRIDENT (Taxonomic Resolution and IDentification using Environmental dNa Traces), an automated and simple protocol designed to improve taxonomic assignments in eDNA metabarcoding. Initially developed for marine vertebrates, TRIDENT may be used with any barcode and integrates three complementary sources of evidence: molecular similarity (NCBI/GenBank and BOLD), curated taxonomic information (WoRMS), and ecological plausibility derived from biogeographic occurrence data (GBIF). The workflow sequentially constructs candidate taxon lists based on sequence similarity, expands them through taxonomic hierarchies, and filters them using spatial occurrence constraints. It further identifies possible taxa lacking reference barcodes and evaluates their plausibility through CO1-based similarity if data exist in BOLD. TRIDENT has been implemented as a source-available Python tool and tested using empirical eDNA datasets from marine vertebrates as well as simulated communities. Results demonstrate that the tool produces taxonomic assignments consistent with expert manual curation while substantially reducing processing time and attention errors caused by manual processing of large datasets. By combining molecular, taxonomic, and ecological criteria within a single framework, TRIDENT improves transparency and reproducibility and provides a robust and flexible solution strengthening confidence in taxonomic identifications in eDNA-based biodiversity assessments.

3
The old pipe gives the sweetest smoke: A phylogenetic turn for eDNA metabarcoding

Haderle, R.; Ung, V.; Jung, J.-L.

2026-06-15 genetics 10.64898/2026.06.11.731524 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
8.0%
Show abstract

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has transformed biodiversity monitoring, yet most analyses rely on taxonomic metrics that are sensitive to methodological variation and limit cross-study comparability. We propose a "phylogenetic turn" in eDNA analysis through the integration of phylogenetic diversity (PD) metrics. By incorporating evolutionary relationships, PD reduces dependence on species-level resolution, increases robustness to detection biases, and better captures the evolutionary "option value" of biodiversity. We synthesize key PD metrics across richness, divergence, and regularity, emphasizing the use of standardized effect sizes (SES) for ecological interpretation while addressing challenges in metric selection. We apply this framework to five marine eDNA datasets (2021-2025) spanning ecologically and geographically contrasting ecosystems, from tropical to Arctic regions, and encompassing a wide gradient of anthropogenic pressure. Across datasets, we identify consistent patterns: anthropized ecosystems exhibit high taxonomic richness but reduced phylogenetic diversity, indicating phylogenetic clustering, whereas less disturbed systems show lower richness but greater evolutionary breadth. These findings demonstrate that PD reveals ecological structure not captured by taxonomic metrics, including signatures of environmental filtering and community assembly processes. By providing a reproducible analytical workflow based on standardized eDNA datasets, we position phylogenetic diversity as a critical bridge between eDNA data and conservation frameworks. Ultimately, eDNA-based phylogenetic approaches open new avenues for decoding global biodiversity patterns across heterogeneous ecosystems.

4
Laser scanning identifies large trees as a major source of uncertainty in mangrove carbon accounting

Jackson, T. D.; Feyen, J.; Lozano-Arias, L.; Caicedo-Garcia, J.-P.; Sierra-Correa, P. C.; Montes-Chaura, C. C.; Sanjur, A. A.; Hoyos-Santillan, J.; Castillo, D.; Castillo, Y.; Wortel, V.; Ouboter, M. P.; Tjong-A-Hung, N. S.; Amiemba, D. L.; Rambharos, C. S.; Paloeng, C. P.; Moe Soe Let, V. A.; Hardin, R.; Porter, F. R.; Kerr, O. O.; Rodriguez Hernandez, D. I.; Digby, M. A.; Jucker, T.; Fischer, F. J.; Calders, K.; Price, C. A.; Mathura, F.; Asmath, H.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731900 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
7.2%
Show abstract

BackgroundMangrove forests are crucial ecosystems which support biodiversity, protect coastlines and store vast amounts of carbon. Mangrove conservation and protection rely on accurate carbon accounting to unlock investment. However, the allometric equations underpinning these carbon estimates remain poorly constrained, particularly for the large trees. MethodsWe used terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to estimate the biomass of 187 mangrove stems across Suriname, Panama, Colombia and Jamaica, including 84 stems >20 cm DBH. TLS-derived biomass estimates were used to evaluate local, regional and pantropical allometric equations. ResultsMost diameter-based allometric equations underestimated biomass by 8-65%. Equations additionally incorporating tree height performed better, but still underestimated biomass by 12-16% on average. Applying alternative allometries to a representative mangrove inventory from Panama produced biomass estimates ranging from 80 to 200 Mg ha-{superscript 1}, demonstrating that allometric uncertainty alone can generate more than a two-fold difference in estimated carbon stocks. ConclusionsCurrent allometric equations systematically underestimate the biomass of large mangrove trees and are therefore likely to underestimate mangrove carbon stocks. TLS provides a practical, non-destructive approach for expanding biomass datasets and improving allometric equations. Reducing allometric uncertainty should be a priority for strengthening blue carbon accounting and mangrove conservation.

5
Global variations of Light Use Efficiency in Forests Jointly Driven by Plant Traits and Climatic Conditions

Zhang, Y.

2026-06-17 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.16.732732 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.7%
Show abstract

Forests are essential to the global carbon cycle with light use efficiency (LUE) as a key parameter for assessing carbon sequestration capacity. However, the variations and drivers of LUE remain inadequately understood. Using remote sensing data, we analyzed global LUE patterns across five forest types and identified the main drivers. The global average annual LUE of forests is 0.93 {+/-} 0.36 g C MJ-1 during the period 2001-2022, with an increasing trend of 0.0034 g C MJ-1 yr-1. Among forest types, evergreen broadleaf forests exhibited the highest LUE, followed by evergreen needleleaf forests. Deciduous broadleaf forests and mixed forests showed similar levels, while deciduous needleleaf forests exhibiting the lowest LUE. Variations in LUE were jointly driven by plant traits and climatic conditions, with generalized linear models explaining 86% and 98% of spatial and temporal LUE variations, respectively. These findings highlight the critical role of plant traits and climate in shaping forest LUE, providing insights for enhancing carbon cycle models and informing forest management strategies in the context of global change.

6
Ecological dynamics and stability in the Taï and Comoe national parks in Cote dIvoire

Kouakou, J.-L.; Assemien Cyrille-Joseph, A.; Alphonse, Y. K.; Ouattara, A.; Diarrassouba, A.; Gonedele-Bi, S.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744377 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.3%
Show abstract

The accelerated loss of biodiversity in sub-Saharan Africa threatens the functioning of tropical ecosystems. In Cote dIvoire, the Comoe National Park (PNCOMOE), a Sudano-Guinean savannah, and the Tai National Park (PNTAI), a dense rainforest, both UNESCO World Heritage Sites, are home to fauna assemblages of global importance, whose long-term resilience remains insufficiently quantified. This study assesses and compares, over a decade (2014-2025), the functional stability of vertebrate communities in these two contrasting ecosystems, using nine metrics covering resistance, invariance, persistence, interspecific synchrony, Tilmans stability, Jacobian resilience and a Composite Stability Index (CSI). Abundance data for 107 vertebrate species were collected via foot transects at PNTAI and aerial surveys at PNCOMOE. The stability metrics were calculated using the R package estar, integrated with an alpha diversity analysis (Shannon H', species richness S, Pielous evenness J') and a Jacobian spectral analysis within a multidimensional ecological assessment. PNTAI (0.708) exhibits significantly higher alpha diversity (H' = 2.82; S = 55.7 taxa) and community resilience 4.6 times higher than in the PNCOMOE (0.153). Its interspecific asynchrony index (0.504) reveals a strong portfolio effect, absent in the PNCOMOE (0.232). In contrast, PNCOMOE exhibits higher temporal invariance (0.382 versus 0.116) and Tilman stability (0.276 versus 0.152), reflecting more predictable dynamics. The overall ICS favours the PNTAI (0.484) and (0.370). The Jacobian analysis detects local instability in both parks (Re({lambda}max) = 5.58 at the PNTAI; 3.73 at the PNCOMOE). The two parks exhibit distinct yet complementary stability architectures: PNTAI relies on dynamic stability based on resilience and interspecific compensation, whilst PNCOMOE demonstrates conservative stability through temporal regularity. The absence of calculable resilience at PNCOMOE suggests a potential crossing of a functional degradation threshold, arguing for urgent restoration interventions and differentiated conservation strategies, tailored to the resilience mechanisms specific to each ecosystem.

7
Deadwood-related microhabitats in old-growth forests in Poland

Przepiora, F.; Ciach, M.

2026-08-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.12.744401 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.1%
Show abstract

Deadwood is a fundamental component of forest ecosystem, supporting biodiversity and driving multiple ecological processes. However, structures that may develop on downed coarse woody debris (CWD) create additional microhabitats that are used by numerous organisms and contribute to small-scale habitat heterogeneity. To date, quality of CWD is commonly characterized by its volume, diameter, tree species or stage of decomposition, while fine-scale structures occurring there remain not surveyed and their role in ecosystem is rarely quantified. Here, we introduce the novel concept of microhabitats on CWD. i.e. Deadwood-related Microhabitats (DreMs), defined as distinct features occurring on CWD that may provide shelter, breeding or foraging sites for forest-dwelling organisms. Using an original catalogue comprising 14 groups and 30 types, we inventoried DreMs on 6,003 CWD across 423 study plots located in best-preserved old-growth forests in Poland. We quantified the frequency and richness of DreMs and assessed the link between CWD characteristics and DreM richness in spruce, beech, willow-poplar, fir-beech and oak-lime- hornbeam forests. All inventoried DreMs occurred on both deciduous and coniferous taxa. The most frequent DreM included bryophyte mats, loose bark patches, insect galleries, fungal fruiting bodies and polypores. DreM richness increased with CWD diameter, more complex architecture and the presence of multiple decay classes within single debris. DreM richness peaked at intermediate decay classes and was higher on deciduous than on coniferous taxa. Our study is the first large-scale qualitative and quantitative assessment of DreMs in temperate forests. By focusing on forests characterized by ecological continuity and minimal human-related disturbance, the results provide a reference for downed deadwood-associated structures. By complementing inventory of tree-related microhabitats, DreMs extend potential monitoring schemes of habitat quality and contribute to biodiversity-oriented forest management. Highlights* Downed coarse woody debris (CWD) hosts Deadwood-related microhabitats (DreMs) * Higher DreM richness is associated with CWD diameter * DreM richness peak at intermediate stages of wood decay * CWD of deciduous taxa support more DreMs than coniferous * Diversified CWD and DreMs increase habitat heterogeneity for forest-dwelling taxa

8
Testing the waters of macrophyte biodiversity with multiscale spatial analysis of public lake monitoring data

Tseitlin, M.; Garcia-Giron, J.; Crabot, J.; Jiang, X.; Larkin, D. J.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.22.733670 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
6.0%
Show abstract

Freshwater monitoring programmes like the European Unions Water Framework Directive (WFD) provide a wealth of data on European lake status, including water quality and macrophytes (aquatic plants) as critical habitat features that support health of humans and wildlife. Easier WFD data access can enable external management and research to better safeguard human and natural freshwater use. We demonstrate a replicable workflow to easily download and process multi-year (2007-2024) observations of lake macrophytes (425 sites) and complementary water quality variables (202 sites) from Swedish WFD data. Then, we illustrate the value of improved data access to address ecological questions that drive conservation, investigating how spatial scales influence macrophyte richness and associated water quality relationships using a spatial random intercept model. Decomposing the spatial intercept links small scales (<10 km) to site-level gradients and large scales (>100 km) to biogeographical drivers. Stochastic and environmentally-structured processes coexisted at intermediate scales (10-100 km). Adding water quality rarely improved overall predictive performance of macrophyte diversity models but consistently influences the role of different spatial scales. Water quality variables showed consistent spatially structured variation at intermediate scales and unique spatial patterns in tandem, overlapping with large-scale biogeographical influences. Altogether, we show context-dependencies for spatial model interpretation and provide guidance in accounting for spatial confounding to improve inferential and predictive performance. Our workflow and results show a clear way forward for accessing high-quality macrophyte and water quality data sets and their utility for addressing ecological questions that guide macrophyte protection under the WFD. HighlightsO_LIyears Swedish of macrophyte and water quality monitoring data were extracted. C_LIO_LIrichness showed scale-specific patterns linked to geographic gradients. C_LIO_LIbest predictive models for richness had no water quality at all. C_LIO_LIoverlap in their spatial scales and must be carefully separated. C_LIO_LIpen access data and multiscale analysis can apply to many ecological questions. C_LI

9
Blockages to biodiversity data access for conservation and sustainability management

Stephenson, P. J.; Unter, K. M. M.; Walls, J. L.; Moncada, J. A. A.; Sawyerr, L.; Londono Murcia, M. C.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Fumagalli, L.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.13.732021 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
5.5%
Show abstract

Governments, civil society organizations and businesses often lack the biodiversity data they need for decision-making and adaptive management, impacting their planning, reporting and performance. We explored the biodiversity data needs of such actors in Colombia, Ghana and Switzerland to identify factors affecting data availability and use. Responses to questionnaire surveys showed that the data types with the biggest gaps between user needs and access were progress on conservation or sustainability actions, species populations, habitat state and ecological risk. The most frequent data blockages related to inadequate resources and organizational capacity. Obstacles significantly associated with a lack of primary data included an absence of organizational biodiversity goals and monitoring systems. Problems accessing habitat quality and species abundance data were associated with data collection methods being unknown or unavailable. Businesses were more likely than other groups to need data on threats, perhaps reflecting the increasing importance of environmental risk to the corporate sector. Businesses are less likely to collect primary data or use secondary data and are significantly more likely to be unclear on what biodiversity indicators to use. Non-business organizations are significantly more likely to be unable to access data because of a lack of funding for data collection, analysis, and use. Our results highlight the need for stakeholders across sectors to work together to find common solutions to build and invest in monitoring capacity that unblocks the flow of biodiversity data.

10
Assessing the impact of spatial and temporal filters on BirdNET performance for monitoring bird communities

Perez-Granados, C.; Morant, J.; Funosas, D.; Sebastian-Gonzales, E.

2026-06-08 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.02.729608 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
5.3%
Show abstract

Recent advances in automated technologies, such as passive acoustic monitoring, provide a powerful framework for surveying bird communities at broad spatial scales. Among the most widely used artificial intelligence tools for automated bird sound recognition is BirdNET, which can identify over 6,000 species worldwide. However, the effects of key user-defined settings, such as species filtering, remain poorly evaluated. Here, we assess how alternative species-filtering strategies influence BirdNET performance in describing bird communities worldwide. We analysed 5,047 minutes of sound recordings from 72 locations worldwide, comprising 1,192 bird species identified by expert ornithologists. We compared three common species-filtering approaches applied in BirdNET workflows to post-process its output: no filtering, spatial filtering (species present all-year at a given location), and spatio-temporal filtering (species present at a given location and week). The unfiltered approach maximised BirdNET species detection (recall) but suffered very low precision (had many misidentifications) and poor overall performance. In contrast, the other two filtering strategies greatly improved precision and overall performance, despite moderate reductions in recall. Among them, spatio-temporal filtering consistently achieved the best performance across most datasets and regions globally. Within this optimal filtering approach, we also evaluated the role of another parameter: occurrence probability thresholds. Intermediate values of this threshold (around 0.05) maximized BirdNET performance in community-level analyses. Our results demonstrate that species filtering is a key but often underappreciated component of BirdNET workflows. We hope our findings may guide future studies in selecting optimal species filters, while emphasising that filtering selection should be guided by study objectives and data context.

11
Complementary Insights from Environmental DNA and Environmental RNA Metabarcoding for Marine Biodiversity Assessment Around San Andres Island, Colombia

Bedingfield, S. K.; Vanegas Moreno, C.; More, A. F.

2026-06-08 genetics 10.64898/2026.06.03.730006 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
5.1%
Show abstract

Environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding has become a cornerstone of marine biodiversity monitoring, yet it recovers genetic material irrespective of organism viability and may therefore conflate historical and contemporary community signals. Environmental RNA (eRNA), derived from less stable ribonucleic acid, is hypothesized to be biased toward metabolically active organisms and may provide a more temporally resolved snapshot of living communities. Here we present a paired eDNA/eRNA metabarcoding comparison across a tropical marine seascape, analyzing 19 co-sampled sites spanning coral reefs, mangroves, a seagrass bed, shipwrecks, a cenote, and coastal infrastructure around San Andres Island, Colombia. To our knowledge this is the first in situ, ecosystem-scale paired eDNA/eRNA survey of the broad eukaryotic community across multiple natural habitat types in a tropical marine system, extending mesocosm and freshwater work (e.g., Giroux et al., 2022) to a field setting. Using COI-region amplicon sequencing processed by NatureMetrics, we recovered 1,944 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) across the 19 paired sites. Of these, 1,015 (52.2%) were detected by both approaches, 305 (15.7%) were unique to eDNA, and 624 (32.1%) were unique to eRNA. The eRNA-unique fraction was taxonomically enriched for groups including diatoms (class Bacillariophyceae, phylum Ochrophyta), ciliates, and other protists. Paired Wilcoxon signed-rank tests showed that eRNA recovered significantly higher OTU richness (median 239 vs. 207; W = 36, p = 0.016) and Shannon diversity (median 3.64 vs. 3.38; W = 40, p = 0.026) than eDNA. The mean per-site Jaccard similarity between paired samples was 0.40, indicating substantial turnover in the rare-taxon composition recovered by each method. Principal coordinates analysis of Bray-Curtis dissimilarity showed that habitat type structured abundance-weighted community composition (PERMANOVA F = 2.49, p = 0.001) whereas molecular method did not (F = 1.37, p = 0.107). A PERMDISP test found homogeneous multivariate dispersion between methods (F = 0.01, p = 0.92), reinforcing the absence of a method effect, but significant dispersion heterogeneity among habitats (F = 24.0, p < 0.01), so the habitat result is interpreted with caution. Indicator species analysis identified 73 OTUs significantly associated with one template: eDNA indicators were dominated by dinoflagellates (Dinophyceae) and eRNA indicators by diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) and fungi, consistent with an eRNA bias toward metabolically active microbial eukaryotes. A read-weighted overlap analysis showed that although eRNA-unique OTUs outnumbered eDNA-unique OTUs roughly two to one, the large majority of reads (>95%) fell in shared OTUs, so method-unique detections are predominantly rare taxa. We discuss the complementary value of eRNA for marine monitoring, with the seagrass habitat -- where eRNA reduced masking by terrestrial plant material -- as the clearest use case, and propose, rather than prescribe, the integration of eRNA into routine programs.

12
Widespread collapse in Iberian forest site productivity projected under future climate change

Fernandez-Pastor, M.; Rodriguez-Ruiz, G.; Monjo, R.; del Carre, M.; Hernandez-Parada, A. I.; Prado-Lopez, C.; Garcia-Valdes, R.; Redolat, D.; Moreno-Chacon, E.; Ribaylagua, J.

2026-08-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.07.743474 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
5.0%
Show abstract

AimHere we aim to disentangle species-specific bioclimatic drivers of forest site productivity and project their future dynamics, providing a spatially explicit basis for anticipating climate-driven shifts in productivity and their implications for forest carbon sequestration. LocationIberian Peninsula. Time period1985-2014 (calibration); 2071-2100 (projected under CMIP6 scenarios). Major taxa studied21 Iberian tree species. MethodsWe used Site Form (SF) maps derived from the Third Spanish National Forest Inventory, spatially interpolating plot-level SF estimates as a continuous productivity index and relating them to 25 bioclimatic variables. Multiple linear regression models were selected via complementary stepwise and subset regression and validated on independent hold-out data (80%/20% split). ResultsValidated [Formula] ranged from 0.46 (Quercus faginea) to 0.97 (Pinus pinaster); 17 of 21 species reached [Formula]. BI013 precipitation of the wettest month), not BI014, was the most frequently retained predictor (15/17); BI014 was retained in only (11/17 models with a near-even sign split. Combining projected changes in mean productivity and habitat extent under SSP5-8.5, fifteen of sixteen applicable species lose total productivity by 2071-2100, six -- including Fagus sylvatica and Betula alba -- collapsing to below 1% of their reference-period value; only Pinus pinaster gains, and only under the lowest-emission pathway (up to 175%) -- under SSP5-8.5 it too loses productivity, albeit less than any other species (35% of its reference-period value retained). Limiting warming to SSP1-2.6 spares Mediterranean pine and oak species but not Euro-Siberian and montane ones. Main conclusionsThese validated, extrapolation-aware models reveal a near-universal, climate-driven collapse in Iberian forest site productivity, with direct implications for the carbon-sink potential currently attributed to these forest types, and provide a route to dynamic, climate-aware carbon-uptake estimates for the region.

13
Full-length COI barcodes improve eDNA metabarcoding data denoising relative to mini-barcodes

Eisele, M. H.; Varusk, S.; Sammet, K.; Hakimzadeh, A.; Metsoja, M.; Tedersoo, L.; Alwutayd, K. M.; Arribas, P.; Andujar, C.; Emerson, B. C.; Anslan, S.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.736260 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.8%
Show abstract

Animal COI (mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I) metabarcoding of environmental DNA (eDNA) is increasingly used to assess biodiversity in complex substrates such as soil. However, due to read-length constraints of second-generation sequencing platforms, mini-barcodes have been used instead of the full barcode region. Long-read sequencing technologies now enable the recovery of full-length barcode sequences, and are more commonly applied for studying microbes, but their use for metabarcoding the full-length standard COI barcoding region in animals remains limited. In this study, we compared three COI amplicon sets -- 313 bp, 660 bp, and 1,256 bp -- amplified from soil eDNA samples and sequenced using Illumina and PacBio platforms to evaluate their overall concurrence, the effectiveness of identifying nuclear mitochondrial DNA segments (NUMTs) and chimeras, as well as their respective taxonomic resolution. The long-read datasets exhibited a higher identification rate of NUMTs and true chimeras, suggesting that longer sequences improve the detection of noise in COI metabarcoding data, thereby reducing the occurrence of spurious taxa. Taxonomy assignment confidence was similar between the 313 bp and 660 bp datasets, whereas extending the amplicon beyond the standard COI barcode region (1,256 bp) reduced confidence, likely because longer reads extend into regions poorly represented in barcode reference databases. Despite substantially lower sequencing depth in the 660 bp dataset, per-sample OTU richness did not differ significantly from that recovered with the Illumina 313 bp amplicon set. Similarly, the relationships between samples were strongly correlated across the detected OTU communities, indicating consistent ecological interpretations between short and long amplicons. We conclude that the standard ~658 bp COI barcode is an optimal marker for soil animal metabarcoding from eDNA, balancing target recovery, artifact detection, taxonomic assignment and ecological interpretability. As COI eDNA metabarcoding becomes increasingly used in biodiversity assessment and is increasingly adopted in large-scale monitoring initiatives, this study provides methodological guidance for improving the robustness of soil animal community biomonitoring.

14
An R-Based Adaptive Quadtree Spatial Tiling Workflow for Boundary-Exact GBIF Species Occurrence Mining within User-Defined KML Polygons

Pradhan, P.

2026-08-20 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.16.745083 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.8%
Show abstract

Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) occurrence retrievals for an irregularly shaped region are limited by the API spatial query capabilities - rectangular envelopes or size/vertex-limited WKT polygons - neither of which conform to protected areas, sacred groves, wetlands, panchayat or municipal boundaries or any other arbitrary KML polygon of interest queried by users. This paper presents and validates an open, self-contained, adaptive spatial-tiling protocol that (i) ingests any KML polygon of any shape, size and location on earth, breaks it into a set of GBIF API-compatible rectangular tiles, (ii) queries, cleans and clips the individual records to the target polygon, and (iii) summarises the inventory with a generic diversity-completeness-rarefaction module, with minimal manual re-parameterisation between sites. The protocol implements an iterative quadtree refinement algorithm that adapts tile number, size and location to the target polygon geometry, is combined with a fault-tolerant pagination/retry query system, a boundary-exact two-step clipping procedure and a Chao1-based completeness assessment to ensure statistical comparability between sites of different spatial extent and sampling intensity. The algorithm is implemented in open R source (sf, terra, rgbif, tidyverse) with the tiling algorithm controlled by the four parameters only (initial cell size, area floor, tile overlap threshold, recursion limit), with default settings on a new site by simply changing the input file path. This paper describes in detail its five main components - (i) polygon input and validation, (ii) quadtree adaptive tiling, (iii) polygon coverage verification, (iv) tile-wise GBIF query with retry/shrink pagination and partial data retention, (v) boundary-exact deduplication, clipping and diversity estimation. A downstream generic module estimates diversity, Chao1 richness/completeness and Hurlbert rarefaction, for each taxonomic rank and generates rank-ordered diversity tables as output. The generalisability of algorithm to multiple sites has been demonstrated with second polygon (Sonamukhi Sal forest dominated stretch, Bankura district, West Bengal; approx. 610 sq km) that differs from the first (Bishnupur Sal forest dominated stretch; 938 sq km) in both size and complexity (10 vs 34 KML vertices) and report the tiling and diversity metrics comparable results across the two polygons. With no parameter changes, the algorithm generated 135 adaptive query tiles for Sal forest dominated stretch adjoining Bishnupur, and 86 tiles for Sal forest dominated stretch Sonamukhi SDFP, covering completely the area of both polygons. The number of tiles per 100 sq km is comparable between the two runs (14.4 vs 14.1 tiles) despite the 35% difference in polygon size and 3.4x vertex count. The tile-wise querying with retry/shrink pagination retrieved 6,169 GBIF records (excluding errors) with boundary-exact clipping across 404 species for Bishnupur and 1,222 GBIF records (excluding errors) across 271 species for Sonamukhi; the generic diversity module processed the records without further parameter changes and generated comparable metrics for each rank at both sites. The protocol addresses a general bioinformatic challenge in polygon-based GBIF queries, is provided as an open, reusable, documented method which has been validated on two sites. Because the protocol has so far been validated on only two polygons that differ markedly in size, shape and observer regime, it may be regarded as an initial cross-site validation rather than a comprehensive benchmark, and recommend testing on a broader, globally distributed set of polygons before the approach is treated as a general-purpose standard.

15
Climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland vegetation change in Nepal

Shrestha, U. B.; Joshi, S.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737421 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
4.3%
Show abstract

Nepal's rangelands provide multiple benefits, including support for pastoral livelihoods and alpine biodiversity, regulation of water and soil nutrients, and sequestering carbon. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are altering these rangelands, leading to vegetation and biodiversity change. However, national-scale assessments of rangeland change are limited in Nepal. This study quantified rangeland changes at multiple spatial scales and assessed the climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland change. About 80.7% of Nepal's high-altitude rangeland (> 2,000m) outside protected areas showed no significant change. Among areas exhibiting significant annual maximum NDVI trends, 383,281 ha (18.6%) showed positive and 14,702 ha (0.7%) showed negative trends, corresponding the ratio of increase in vegetation greenness and decline in vegetation greenness to 26:1. Climate predicted positive trends covered 627,184 ha (30.5%), whereas residual trends caused by non-climatic drivers covered 94,656 ha (4.6%). Climate induced negative trends covered 47,609 ha (2.3%) while residual trends were observed in 6,260 ha (0.3%). Negative trend pixels were concentrated mainly within the 3,000 to 5,000 m elevation band, with Karnali Province recording the highest proportional climate predicted decline in vegetation greenness (3.4%). At the municipality scale, rangeland change showed no significant relationship with grazing pressure derived from gridded livestock data, suggesting that grazing pressure alone did not explain the non-climatic vegetation signal. These spatially explicit, nationally consistent results identify where rangeland change is occurring and help distinguish climatic and non-climatic drivers of rangeland vegetation change, providing evidence to support targeted rangeland management under Nepal's federal governance structure.

16
Biodiversity data portals as methodological filters for iNaturalist: how platform choice can shape biodiversity assessments

Edson, E.; Ellis-Soto, D.; Hill, A. P.; Johnson, R. F.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.12.731923 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.8%
Show abstract

iNaturalist has rapidly grown to become one of the largest contributors of global biodiversity data, being widely used in academic research, to support and inform applied conservation, and to help develop policy indicators for decision makers. However, the availability of iNaturalist data varies based on the digital platform it is accessed from. Here, we assess whether the pathway used to access iNaturalist data from three commonly available biodiversity data sources: iNaturalist, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and ESRIs ArcGIS Online, alters occurrence record availability and downstream analyses for ecological inference. First, we investigate iNaturalist data availability on ArcGIS Online and find that the reduced field metadata for record location and obscuration information can lead to biased assumptions in the spatial ranges of sensitive species. Second, when assessing iNaturalist records available through GBIF, we find that restrictive Creative Commons observation licenses prevent an average of 26.1% of iNaturalist Research Grade records from being exported to GBIF, and this can lead to differences in environmental niche analysis when compared to datasets including all available research grade records. Understanding differences in platform licensing when integrating across biodiversity data repositories is another consideration for researchers and practitioners when conducting biodiversity assessments. Our results show that the pathway through which iNaturalist data are accessed can function as a methodological filter, potentially altering spatial coverage, the climatic conditions represented by occurrence datasets, and downstream ecological analysis.

17
Metabarcoding replicate detection frequency tracks ddPCR copy number for cod and herring eDNA in ancient marine sediments

Banos Lara, E.; Holman, L. E.; Knudsen, S. W.; Bohmann, K.

2026-07-08 genetics 10.64898/2026.07.03.736335 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.3%
Show abstract

1. Detecting environmental DNA (eDNA) from rare or low-abundance aquatic species remains a major challenge, particularly when it is highly degraded, present at low concentrations, and dominated by DNA from non-target taxa. These challenges are further amplified in sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) studies, where thousands of years can degrade eDNA further, making the detection and quantitative interpretation of weak biological signals difficult. 2. Metabarcoding is commonly used to produce high-throughput community-level data from eDNA but is inherently compositional and influenced by amplification biases. Nonetheless, metabarcoding read abundance or PCR replicate detection frequency are increasingly used as proxies for relative DNA concentration, but their quantitative interpretation has rarely been evaluated against independent measures of absolute DNA abundance. 3. We used droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) to quantify mitochondrial DNA from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in 136 ancient eDNA extracts from Icelandic marine sediment cores spanning the last three millennia. We compared ddPCR copy number estimates with metabarcoding (18S) derived relative abundance and detection frequency, and evaluated whether temporal DNA trends corresponded with proxy reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. 4. We found that ddPCR-measured fish sedaDNA abundance was positively correlated with the proportion of metabarcoding PCR replicates for both Atlantic cod and Atlantic herring. Moreover, temporal trends in Atlantic herring DNA abundance were consistent with proxy reconstructed SST variability, supporting the ecological relevance of the molecular signal. 5. Overall, our results show that ddPCR-derived DNA concentrations and metabarcoding PCR replicate detection frequency capture consistent patterns in low-abundance fish sedaDNA from marine sediments. The observed agreement between approaches supports the use of PCR replicate detection frequency as a semi-quantitative proxy for low-abundance sedaDNA.

18
Classifying and Mapping Wetland Vegetation Assemblages in Coastal Louisiana with Landsat Imagery, 1985-2025

Snedden, G. A.; Couvillion, B.; Schoolmaster, D. R.

2026-08-18 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.13.744705 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.3%
Show abstract

The tidal wetlands of Louisiana comprise about 25% of those found throughout the conterminous United States yet estimates of wetland loss rates in the region between 1932 and 2016 have exceeded 60 km2 yr-1. To mitigate further degradation and wetland loss in the region, a globally unprecedented $50B, 50-year plan for coastal Louisiana is driving restoration efforts, and demand exists from multiple stakeholders for regularly updated, regional-scale, accurate land cover information. We used machine learning (random forests; RF) and cloud computing to develop a new Landsat-based, marsh vegetation community geospatial dataset. The dataset depicts wetland vegetation community types defined in a previous study at annual (1985-2025) time steps at 30-m resolution. An RF algorithm was used to integrate training samples with feature variables derived from Landsat imagery, and the resulting geospatial data product achieved an overall correct classification rate of 78%. The approach for development of the land cover dataset presented here has potential for application in other coastal wetland habitats throughout the world.

19
Mapping Coastal Forest Retreat Using Convolutional Neural Networks and Different Satellite Imagery

Tajudeen, T. T.; Ardon, M.; Tulbure, M.; Martin, K. L.

2026-08-22 ecology 10.64898/2026.08.18.745552 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.2%
Show abstract

Coastal forests are increasingly threatened by saturated soil and elevated salinity levels resulting from sea level rise, saltwater intrusion, and storm surges. In response to rising salinization and flooding, healthy coastal forests that rely on freshwater (both wetland forests and low-elevation upland forests) are transitioning into landscapes dominated by dead or dying trees, known as ghost forests. Situated among salt-tolerant shrubs and grasses, ghost forests eventually become marshes or open water. Here, our main objective was to quantify the dynamics and pathways of these forest landscape conversions, as well as the factors contributing to the changes, which is vital for understanding the progression of coastal ecosystem degradation and forecasting future changes. We focused first on identifying the best method to track forest landscape change by exploring the role of multiple remote sensing indices (i.e., multispectral, bi-seasonal, topographical, and phenological metrics) in enhancing the performance of deep learning models (convolutional neural networks, CNNs) for land cover classification in the coastal plain of North Carolina using surface reflectance of Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 images. Then, we used the best available data (Landsat 8) to understand long-term change and identify patterns of land cover change from 1985 to 2021. Our study reveals that incorporating phenology and topographical indices enhances the separability of the ghost forests class from all other vegetation classes. In our assessment, the higher-resolution Sentinel-2 data (F1 Score = 96.3) outperformed Landsat images (F1 score = 93.4) for the 2021 co-available year. However, Landsat remains an important tool used due to its long-term data record. Therefore, we used Landsat to determine that 21% of forests were lost between 1985 and 2021, and that the rate of loss is increasing. Between 2010 and 2021, 23,876 ha of forest were converted to marsh, ghost forest, and shrub, which is 1.5 times higher than the 16,968 ha lost between 1985 and 2010. These conversions from forest to ghost forest and marshes were driven primarily by proximity to the channel, salinity, and the increasing rate of relative sea level rise (RSLR), which are the key environmental drivers of observed changes. By quantifying these changes, we highlight regions most vulnerable to environmental stressors, providing a basis for targeted conservation strategies.

20
Linking automated image analysis to ecological inference: high-throughput monitoring of soil fauna

Hendrikx, H.; Belaud, E.; Postic, F.; Scalabrino, M.; Lebeau, M.; Le Maire, G.; Jourdan, C.; Gallet, P.; Hedde, M.

2026-06-16 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.16.732537 medRxiv
Top 0.1%
3.2%
Show abstract

1 - Automated in situ sensors - e.g., buried scanners - are transforming biodiversity monitoring by generating data at spatio-temporal resolutions unattainable through traditional sampling, including in cryptic environments such as soil that have remained largely inaccessible to existing methods. However, extracting ecologically meaningful information from these data streams requires substantial image processing effort that currently constitutes a critical bottleneck, particularly when the signal-to-noise ratio is low and annotated training data are scarce. 2 - Standard end-to-end deep learning detection pipelines offer unsatisfactory results due to the lack of training data and heterogeneity of the taxa of interest. We explore the potential of combining traditional computer vision algorithms with state-of-the-art deep learning models to build an efficient raw data processing pipelines from limited annotation effort. Specifically, based on the observation that the background barely changes, we focus on the differences between two consecutive images to turn the initial detection problem (with very low signal) into a simpler classification problem, which we solve by fine-tuning foundation models on limited annotated data. 3 - Our approach significantly reduces the annotation effort, allowing us to release an open dataset with about 600 soil scans and more than 8 000 labeled invertebrate occurrences across nine taxa. Using this dataset to train our models, we obtained population count estimates with relative errors ranging from 10% to 61% across taxa over a three-month period. Ecological validation through a land-use stability analysis showed full directional congruence between automated and expert-annotated classifications across all nine taxa examined, with effect-size discrepancies proportional to per-taxon classification accuracy. 4 - These results demonstrate that combining domain-specific heuristics with fine-tuned foundation models provides an effective and data-efficient strategy for automating ecological image processing workflows in low-signal, data-scarce contexts. The validated pipeline removes the manual annotation bottleneck that has historically limited scanner-based soil monitoring to short observational windows and restricted taxonomic scope, opening the way for continuous, large-scale tracking of soil invertebrate community dynamics at resolutions previously unachievable.